Developed by researchers from the MIT-Comillas Universal Energy Access Lab, this July 2020 working paper by Carlos de Abajo, Santos Díaz-Pastor, Andrés González and Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga examines whether a distribution concession could finance Rwanda’s remaining electrification under the Integrated Distribution Framework (IDF), the earlier formulation of the Integrated Framework for Electrification (IFE).
Building on the team’s least-cost electrification plan for Rwanda, the paper develops a financial model covering 2021–2040. It brings together grid extension, mini-grids and stand-alone systems within a deliberately simplified business model based on a single concession. The proposed design distinguishes new assets from the existing distribution network, with separate accounting and remuneration arrangements under a regulator-set revenue requirement.
The analysis estimates the investment, tariffs, subsidies and concessional financing needed to support implementation. It highlights the importance of government support, credible regulation and a capital structure that aligns public and private financing.
As the team’s first financial plan for universal access, the study provides an exploratory basis for assessing how electrification plans can become investable programmes. Its financial modelling focuses on currently unserved customers; a complete assessment would also need to incorporate the existing distribution business.
